ECONOMIC INDICATOR DASHBOARD 2023 vs Now
Says Presidential Spokesperson Sunday Dare
baron
6/8/20261 min read
Debt Service Ratio (primarily debt service-to-revenue ratio):
Before Tinubu (2023/early period): The ratio was very high, often cited around 80-97% or more (some estimates reached 100-110%+ in peak periods), with debt servicing consuming a massive share of federal retained revenue (e.g., ~N8-9 trillion debt service vs. ~N10-11 trillion revenue).
Under Tinubu (2025-2026): It has improved in some official claims (e.g., down toward 50-65% in periods), aided by higher revenues from reforms like subsidy removal and FX unification.
Forex Reserves (gross and net):
Before Tinubu (end-2022/early 2023): Gross reserves were around $33-40 billion; net FX reserves were critically low at ~$3.99 billion (end-2023) or even lower in some analyses due to liabilities like forwards/swaps.
Under Tinubu (2025-2026): Significant improvement, especially in net reserves. Net FX reserves rose sharply to $23.11 billion (2024) and $34.8 billion (end-2025). Gross reserves reached ~$45-50 billion range (e.g., ~$49.5-50 billion in mid-2026, with fluctuations). This reflects policy reforms rebuilding buffers, though gross figures have seen some drawdowns at times.
Balance of Trade (goods/merchandise):
Before Tinubu (2022-2023): Nigeria ran trade surpluses overall but with volatility; 2023 saw positive merchandise balances in naira terms (e.g., exports outpacing imports in Q1), though U.S. bilateral data showed deficits in some contexts. Surpluses were narrower or inconsistent amid FX/multiple exchange rate issues.
Under Tinubu (2025-2026): Stronger and more consistent surpluses, driven by oil/non-oil exports, reduced imports (e.g., via local refining), and reforms. Examples include N5.17 trillion (Q1 2025), N7.46 trillion (Q2 2025), and ongoing monthly/annual surpluses (e.g., hundreds of millions USD monthly). Overall goods trade surplus widened notably.
Summary Context: Reforms (subsidy removal, FX unification, revenue measures) under Tinubu have strengthened external balances (reserves and trade surplus) and somewhat eased (but not resolved) debt pressures through higher revenues.
Sources include CBN, DMO, NBS, Reuters, and analyses.